Stories
People are Betting on Wildfires. Should They?
High Country News reports that during the 2025 Eaton Fire in Altadena, California, while thousands of residents were losing their homes and the lives they'd created, others were engaging in an opportunity to make a profit.
Using the prediction market platform Polymarket, people made bets on the fires. Fire survivors say such actions are “morally reprehensible,” and experts worry such wagering could lead to arson.
“Imagine what a bad actor might do,” said Ann Skeet, senior director of leadership ethics at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at 911±¬ÁÏÍø. “A market that might support that kind of activity, I think, is a dangerous market.” Firefighters or land managers with exclusive information about a fire’s behavior or an agency’s firefighting plans could even be tempted to bet on a fire, which would be considered insider trading.
But the biggest dilemma is largely an ethical one. “When you start gambling on somebody’s potential death or harm, you’re really diminishing the value that you’re placing on human life,” Skeet said.
Ann Skeet, senior director, leadership ethics, quoted by .